Central bank capital management

This paper offers general guidelines for central bank capital management. Capitaladequacy is important to be a credible, independent monetary authority over a medium-term horizon. Central banks, however, face several challenges in determining their capital adequacy. Firstly, the amount of capital only plays an auxiliary role in central banks’ effectiveness given that they cannot default as long as they have the right to issue legal tender. Secondly, central banks face two types of financial risks: calculable risks from current exposures and latent risks from future exposures. These latent risks, in particular, are difficult to quantify because they stem from contingent policy measures such as quantitative easing and lending of last resort. It is argued that a central bank’s target level of capital (1) can be calibrated with a confidence level that is lower than that used for commercial banks and (2) takes latent risks into account that are related to GDP or the size of the financial sector in the economy

Central bank capital management

This paper offers general guidelines for central bank capital management. Capitaladequacy is important to be a credible, independent monetary authority over a medium-term horizon. Central banks, however, face several challenges in determining their capital adequacy. Firstly, the amount of capital only plays an auxiliary role in central banks’ effectiveness given that they cannot default as long as they have the right to issue legal tender. Secondly, central banks face two types of financial risks: calculable risks from current exposures and latent risks from future exposures. These latent risks, in particular, are difficult to quantify because they stem from contingent policy measures such as quantitative easing and lending of last resort. It is argued that a central bank’s target level of capital (1) can be calibrated with a confidence level that is lower than that used for commercial banks and (2) takes latent risks into account that are related to GDP or the size of the financial sector in the economy

Pension funds. asset allocation and participant age: a test of the life-cycle model

This paper examines the impact of participants. age distribution on the asset allocation of Dutch pension funds, using a unique data set of pension fund investment plans for 2007. Theory predicts a negative effect of age on (strategic) equity exposures. We observe that pension funds do indeed take the average age of their participants into account. However, the average age of active participants has been incorporated much more strongly in investment behaviour than the average ages of retired or dormant participants. This suggests that both employers and employees, who dominate pension fund boards, tend to show more interest in active participants. A one-year higher average age in active participants leads to a significant and robust reduction in the strategic equity exposure by around 0.5 percentage point. Larger pension funds show a stronger age-equity exposure effect than smaller pension funds. This age-dependent asset allocation of pension funds aligns with the original life-cycle model by which young workers should invest more in equity than older workers because of their larger human capital. Other factors, viz. fund size, funding ratio, and average pension wealth of participants, influence equity exposure positively and significantly, in line with theory. Pension plan type and pension fund type have no significant impact.Pension funds, strategic equity allocation, lifecycle saving and investing

Pricing of climate transition risks across different financial markets

As the global economy transitions towards net zero, it is conjectured that efficient financial markets reflect the risks involved with this transition. This hypothesis is empirically tested in this paper and signals are found of climate transition risk pricing in options, equity and bond markets, based on greenhouse gas emission levels. The analysis of recent developments in the option market suggests that investors perceive the oil and gas sector to have an elevated risk profile. In the equity and bond market for, particularly, the energy sector, investors appear to demand higher returns to compensate for a higher transition risk. In addition, it is found that the average maturity of newly issued bonds in the carbon intensive coal sector decreased, while the average maturity increased strongly in the renewables sector with low carbon emissions. The reduction of investors’ long-term exposure tothe coal sector signals concerns about its long-term viability, while the opposite is the case for the renewables sector. Nonetheless, it is not possible to conclude that climate risk pricing is consistent, as the statistical evidence is not overwhelming and not fully aligned across different markets. Furthermore, as climate indicators and emission data still contain important flaws, climate pricing based on these indicators could also be inadequate. Therefore, this paper aligns with the literature arguing that climaterisk pricing is inconsistent and inadequate and that this is important for investors and risk managers to acknowledge. In addition, policymakers are urged to ensure that transition information, like emission data, is correct, timely and comparable to ensure its information value and usability

Pricing of climate transition risks across different financial markets

As the global economy transitions towards net zero, it is conjectured that efficient financial markets reflect the risks involved with this transition. This hypothesis is empirically tested in this paper and signals are found of climate transition risk pricing in options, equity and bond markets, based on greenhouse gas emission levels. The analysis of recent developments in the option market suggests that investors perceive the oil and gas sector to have an elevated risk profile. In the equity and bond market for, particularly, the energy sector, investors appear to demand higher returns to compensate for a higher transition risk. In addition, it is found that the average maturity of newly issued bonds in the carbon intensive coal sector decreased, while the average maturity increased strongly in the renewables sector with low carbon emissions. The reduction of investors’ long-term exposure tothe coal sector signals concerns about its long-term viability, while the opposite is the case for the renewables sector. Nonetheless, it is not possible to conclude that climate risk pricing is consistent, as the statistical evidence is not overwhelming and not fully aligned across different markets. Furthermore, as climate indicators and emission data still contain important flaws, climate pricing based on these indicators could also be inadequate. Therefore, this paper aligns with the literature arguing that climaterisk pricing is inconsistent and inadequate and that this is important for investors and risk managers to acknowledge. In addition, policymakers are urged to ensure that transition information, like emission data, is correct, timely and comparable to ensure its information value and usability

Sustainability of participation in collective pension schemes: An option pricing approach

This paper contributes to the discussion about mandatory participation in collective funded pension schemes. It explores under what circumstances individual participants exercise the option to exit such a scheme if participation is voluntary. We begin by showing how the willingness to participate increases if the period over which the option is valid becomes longer. Then, we demonstrate how the pension fund’s set of policy instruments can be deployed to minimize the likelihood that any cohort exits the pension scheme. The instruments consist of contribution and indexation policies. Recovery of the funding ratio, i.e. The ratio of assets over liabilities, to its regulatory target level may be based on uniform contributions or age-dependent contributions. Specifically, while the value of the exit option deters younger workers from exiting the pension fund, a uniform contribution policy encourages older workers to stay in the pension scheme